Introduction to Fuel Price in India Today

Do you know the government of India has recently introduced Dynamic Fuel Pricing system to determine the cost of petrol and diesel? Do you know the pricing mechanism of petrol in India? Are you curious to know what factors determine the fuel Price in India? You are on the right page.

It is important to understand the nature and scope of the oil and natural gas industry, who are the prime players of the industry, and who are the industry stakeholders before answering these questions. Let’s take a quick glimpse at these points.

Indian is one of the world’s biggest oil consumers. Among all industry lines, oil and natural gas (ONG) industry has a significant impact on the growth of the country’s economy and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It accounts for at least 15% of GDP. The industry operates in three segments: 1) upstream, 2) downstream, 3) midstream. The upstream segment covers all activities related to exploration and production. The midstream segment deals with stowage and transportation of natural gas and crude oil. The downstream segment deals with fabrication and refining of petroleum products, storage, transportation and marketing of commodities like natural gas and crude oil.

Trend of Fuel Price in India for June 2020 (rates per litre):

Monthly Fuel Price Trend in India for June 2020:

• In the national capital, a litre of petrol and diesel was priced Rs.71.26 and Rs.69.39 respectively at the start of the month. The opening price of both the fuels was the lowest for the month of June. Compared to the closing price of the precious month, the rates didn’t see any change.
• The rates of both petrol and diesel witnessed an inclining trend over the month as state-run Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) restarted the daily revision of rates from June 7. Petrol and diesel recorded its highest price for the month on 29th June with a litre costing Rs.80.47 and Rs.80.53 respectively.
• Petrol closed the month at Rs.80.43 while diesel closed at Rs.80.53. The percentage change recorded in the rates of both the fuel were 12.86% and 16.05% respectively.

Trend of Fuel Price in India for May 2020 (rates per litre):

Monthly Fuel Price Trend in India for May 2020:

• A litre of petrol and diesel was retailed for Rs.69.59 and Rs.62.29 respectively on the 1st of May. The price charged on the opening day was the lowest for the month. When compared to the closing price of the previous month, there was no change in the rates.
• The rates of both petrol and diesel increased on 5th of May after staying constant for the first four days of the month. The increase in the rates saw petrol and diesel being retailed for Rs.71.26 and Rs.69.39 respectively. These were the highest recorded price of petrol and diesel for the month of May in the country.
• Following that, there was no change in the rates and closed the month at the same price. The overall performance of both petrol and diesel witnessed an inclining trend with the percentage change being 2.39% and 11.39% respectively.

Trend of Fuel Price in India for April 2020 (rates per litre):

Monthly Fuel Price Trend in India for April 2020:

• In India, petrol and diesel opened the month of April at Rs.69.63 and Rs.62.33 per litre respectively. Compared to the closing price of the previous month, the rates didn’t see any change.
• Both the fuel witnessed a declining trend over the month with the percentage change being -0.05% and -0.06% respectively.
• The rates of both petrol and diesel declined by 0.04 paise on 7th and 6th April as crude oil prices slipped in the international market. The drop in the prices meant petrol was retailed for Rs.69.59 per litre while a litre of diesel cost Rs.62.29 in the country. The rates remained unchanged for the rest of the month and closed at the same price even though international oil prices continued to fluctuate.

Trend of Fuel Price in India for March 2020 (rates per litre):

Monthly Fuel Price Trend in India for March 2020:

• Petrol and diesel opened the month of March at Rs.71.75 and Rs.64.34 per litre respectively in the country. The rates of every litre were down by 14 and 18 paise when compared to the closing price of the previous month. Over the month, both the fuels witnessed a declining trend due to weak demand.
• With the number of coronavirus cases increasing and the demand taking a hit, the rates dropped in the country and recorded the lowest price for the month on the 16th of March. A litre of petrol and diesel was retailed for Rs.69.63 and Rs.64.34 respectively on the mentioned date.
• In India, the rates didn’t see any change following that as lockdowns were imposed by different state governments before the central government announced a 21-day lockdown starting 25 March to order to control the spread of coronavirus. Petrol and diesel closed the month of March at the same price and witnessed a percentage change of -2.95% and -3.12% respectively.

Trend of Fuel Price in India for February 2020 (rates per litre):

Monthly Fuel Price Trend in India for February 2020:

• In India, petrol and diesel price opened the month of February at Rs.73.19 and Rs.66.23 per litre respectively. When compared to the previous month’s closing price, the rates of both petrol and diesel declined. The drop recorded was 13 and 11 paise respectively.
• Petrol and diesel recorded its highest price for the month on the 1st of February. The rates dropped following that as international crude oil prices slipped given the increasing number of coronavirus cases across the world.
• The rates of both petrol and diesel closed the month of February at Rs.71.89 and Rs.64.52 per litre respectively. Both witnessed a declining trend over the month in the country with the overall performance being -1.77% for petrol and -2.58% for diesel.

Trend of Fuel Price in India for January 2020 (rates per litre):

Monthly Fuel Price Trend in India for January 2020:

• In India, petrol and diesel price opened the month of January at Rs.75.18 and Rs.68 per litre respectively. While there was no change in the prices when compared to the previous month’s closing price, the rates of both the fuels slipped over the month and witnessed a declining trend.
• Petrol and diesel recorded its highest price for the month on 11 January as global oil prices shot up due to the ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran. A litre of petrol and diesel was retailed for Rs.76.07 and Rs.69.23 respectively on the mentioned date.
• With declining global crude oil prices due to the outbreak of coronavirus and easing tensions in the Middle East, the rates fell in the third week of the month.
• The rates of both the fuel continued to fall in the country with a global health emergency being declared by the World Health Organisation (WHO) due to the increasing number of coronavirus cases and deaths. Petrol and diesel closed the opening month of 2020 at Rs.73.33 and Rs.66.34 per litre respectively with the percentage change being -2.46% and -2.44%.

Trend of fuel Price in India for December 2019 (rates per litre):

Monthly Fuel Price Trend in India for December 2019:

• In India, the price of petrol opened the month of December at Rs.74.99 per litre while diesel opened at Rs.65.79 per litre.
• The prices of both petrol and diesel were affected by the increase in the price of crude oil in the international market. The expectations from the trade deal between USA and China also added up to the change in the rates.
• The month of December 2019 came to a close with petrol standing at Rs.75.18 per litre and diesel standing at Rs.68.00 per litre. Both the fuels witnessed an incline in their overall performance. The percentage change was 0.25% for petrol and 3.36% for diesel.

Trend of fuel Price in India for November 2019 (rates per litre):

Monthly Fuel Price Trend in India for November 2019:

• Petrol price in India opened the month of November at Rs.72.86 per litre while diesel opened at Rs.65.81 per litre.
• The rates of both petrol and diesel dropped in the first week as crude oil prices across the globe was relaxed due to the upcoming US and European economic data.
• The prices of petrol started to improve from the second week of the month while diesel prices saw a slight fluctuation in the prices over the month. Petrol recorded its highest for the month of 30 November while diesel climbed to its highest on 9 November.
• Petrol and diesel closed the month of November at Rs.74.86 and Rs.65.92 respectively with the overall performance of both the fuels being 2.74% and –0.03% respectively. While petrol prices were trending upwards, diesel prices were trending downwards.

Trend of Fuel Price in India for October 2019 (rates per litre):

Monthly Petrol Price Trend in India for October 2019:

• Petrol price in India opened the month of October at Rs.74.67 per litre while diesel opened at Rs.67.55 per litre.
• The rates of both petrol and diesel dropped in the following weeks due to weak demand for fuel and global economic crisis.
• With oil prices in the international oil market taking a hit due to an unprecedented rise in US inventories and the looming economic slump, fuel prices slumped to their lowest for the month on 31st October.
• Petrol and diesel closed the month of October at Rs.72.98 and Rs.65.91 respectively with the overall performance of fuel price in India was -2.26% and -2.42% respectively, trending downwards.

Trend of Fuel Price in India for September 2019 (rates per/litre) :

Monthly Fuel Price Trend in India for September 2019:

• Petrol price in India stood at Rs.672.01 per litre on the 1st of September while diesel recorded Rs.65.26 per litre on the same day. Prices dropped, with petrol recording Rs.71.75 per litre on the 8th of September—its lowest recorded price for the month of September. Similarly, diesel recorded Rs.65.12 on the 7th of September, its lowest recorded price for the month as well.
• However, in the second week, fuel price in India picked up due to US-Iran tensions.
• Prices kept on increasing after a wave of drones hit state-owned Saudi Aramco facilities—world’s largest petrol processing facility, located in Saudi Arabia. Petrol closed the month at Rs.74.46 per litre, its highest recorded price for the month of September. Similarly, diesel closed at Rs.67.36 per litre, it’s highest recorded price as well. The overall performance of fuel price in India was 3.40% and 3.21, respective, trending upwards.

Trend of Fuel Price in India for August 2019 (rates per/litre):

Monthly Fuel Price Trend in India for August 2019:

• Fuel price in India saw a gradual decline in prices owing to the weak demand of the oil. Petrol opened the month at Rs.72.86 per litre, while diesel stood at Rs.66.05 per litre—both trending lower than the previous day’s closing price.
• Petrol dipped further before stabilising on 11th August at Rs.71.99 per litre. Meanwhile, diesel prices dropped before stabilising on 12th August at Rs.65.44 per litre.
• Petrol recorded its lowest price on 19th August at Rs.71.84 per litre. Similarly, diesel recorded its lowest price for the month of August on 20th August at Rs/65.12 per litre.
• Petrol closed the month at Rs.72.01 per litre and diesel closed the month at Rs.65.26, both recording a downward price trend of -1.16% and -1.19%, respectively,

Trend of Fuel Price in India for July 2019 (rates per /litre ):

Monthly Fuel Price Trend in India for July 2019:

• When the month began, fuel price in India stood at Rs.70.50 per litre and diesel at Rs.64.32 per litre – the lowest price recorded during the month – and rose by the end of the week as the Centre levied an additional excise duty and cess of Rs.2 per litre to mop up revenue to fund its social welfare schemes. With this the diesel price in India touched its monthly high of Rs.66.73 per litre on 7 July.
• During the second week, fuel prices declined marginally similarly with diesel prices as well. This was despite crude oil prices in the international rising amid escalating tensions in the Middle East even after the supply cuts led by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies to keep market stable.
• The third witnessed petrol prices on the incline while diesel prices remained unchanged the entire week. As for the crude oil prices, it continued to move upwards after the US reported that it had shot down an Iranian drone, further escalating tensions in the Middle East.
• By the end of the month, petrol prices rose to its monthly high of Rs.73.47 per litre on 23 and 24 July while diesel prices remained muted despite rising crude prices in the international oil market after the US navy said it may have shot down a second Iranian drone and the falling

Trend of Crude oil Price in India for June 2019 (rates per litre):

• On 2 June, petrol was priced Rs.71.83 and diesel at Rs.66.19 per litre, up marginally compared to the previous day’s price. This was also the highest price recorded during the month as crude oil prices inclined amid tensions in the Middle East and US sanctions on Iran.
• During the first and second week, fuel prices in India declined significantly to post the lowest price of the month when petrol was sold at Rs.69.96 and diesel at Rs.63.81 per litre influenced by the drop in crude oil prices in the international market prompted by the supply cuts led by the OPEC and its allies.
• During the last week, both petrol and diesel rates rose marginally despite stable crude prices in the international oil market even though the markets were volatile due to the ongoing trade war between the US and China.
• Overall, petrol price in India declined by 1.99% and diesel was down by 2.98% largely due to the slump in crude oil prices as OPEC limited supplies to the market and investors’ expectations of an interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve to boost the slowing global economy.

Industry Prime Players:

The Indian production and exploration segment is dominated by public sector companies (PSCs). Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has the highest market share followed by Oil Indian Limited (OIL). It is estimated that over 70% of the total market is covered by these two entities and remaining 30% by private corporations. The prime participants of the industry are Indian Oil Corporation, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Oil and Natural Gas Commission, Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Reliance Industries, Patronet LNG, Essar Oil, BP, Gas Authority of India, Bharat Petroleum Corporation, Adani Gas.

Industry Stakeholders

Oil exploration and production companies fabricate oil in its crude form, but only suffice ¼ of the country’s oil needs. Oil marketing companies (OMCs), which include both PSUs and private companies, manage oil from its crude phase to the delivery of refined oil. OMCs pay transportation charges, freight, crude oil prices to buy crude oil. Refineries turn oil into petrol by charging OMCs a refinery transfer price. Excise duty shall be paid by OMCs before selling petrol to dealers. Cost of petrol paid by consumers include all.

Fuel Price in India

The government regulates the retail consumer prices of three petroleum products that are diesel, subsidized domestic LPG, PDS Kerosene. Petrol Prices are marked to market dynamics. The refinery gate price of diesel is reliant on trade parity price and export parity price. All three petroleum products get subsidies, which are the differences between the cost and market prices of petroleum products.

Computation of under-recoveries for Kerosene and Domestic burden:

Under-recovery burden: The expected price for dealers (prior excise duty, commission, VAT) - The government controlled price for dealers (prior excise duty, commission, VAT)

Computation of under-recoveries for Diesel

Under-recovery burden: The expected price for dealers (prior excise duty, commission, VAT) - The government controlled price for dealers (prior excise duty, commission, VAT)

Components of Cost of Petrol

Many factors determine the computation of retail selling price (RSP) or the final petrol prices.

We compute the average crude oil price in US dollars per barrel and refinery transfer price (RTP) by adding refinery charges and freight charges to crude oil price. RTP, in other words, is the price paid by OMCs to refineries. The price, which is charged to dealers, includes both state and central taxes. Petrol prices that are paid by consumers include all.

Components of Petrol Price:

• Sales VAT -17%
• Customs Duty – 4%
• Dealer Commission-2%
• Excise Duty -25%
• Fuel Component-52%

Components of Diesel Price:

• Excise Duty -13%
• Fuel Component-66%
• Dealer Commission-2%
• Customs Duty – 7%
• Sales VAT -12%

The government has no direct cover petrol prices or petrol rates. The petrol rate components are marked to market dynamics that means petrol prices are determined by crude oil prices in global markets and tax imposed by the government. Eventually, price variations in Brent crude shall be shifted to fuel users. 90% of diesel is consumed by industries and remaining 5% is used as fuel. The deregulation of diesel will boost the market price of all manufacturing goods and, as a result, inflation may be adversely affected.

Under-recoveries quoted by OMCs:

Oil is imported and marketed by OMCs that quote the same price quoted on the Singapore Exchange. Price variations in diesel cannot be passed on to consumers since they are regulated. Diesel is still sold at a predetermined government price. Any losses incurred by OMCs by selling diesel at a lower rate is called under-recoveries. The government pays it through subsidies.

Quarterly Fuel Price Trend in India Between January and March 2019

Quarterly Fuel Price Trend in India Between October and December 2018:

Fuel(petrol & Diesel) Price Trend in India Between October and December 2018:

• Petrol and diesel prices in India are based on the ‘Dynamic Fuel Pricing’ mechanism which considers the 14-day average rate the crude oil along with the exchange rate of the rupee over the US dollar.
• Prices are revised daily by State-owned Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs), the rates being effective from 6:00 am every day.
• Under this pricing mechanism, the petrol price in India on 1 October stood at Rs.83.81 per litre and rose to touch the highest on 4 October when it was sold at Rs.84.06 per litre.

• The diesel price in India on 1 October stood at Rs.75.17 per litre which also inclined in the next couple of days.
• The record highs of fuel prices prompted the Central government to announce a cut in the excise duty levied on the sale of fuel in India. While excise duty of Rs.1.50 per litre was cut, the Centre asked OMCs to further subsidise Rs.1 per litre offering some respite to consumers.
• While petrol prices during October in India declined, diesel prices rose to touch the highest on 17 October when it was sold at Rs.75.74 per litre.
• Both petrol and diesel prices declined by the end of the month, recording a drop of 5.02% and 1.79% respectively. The decline was influenced by the reduction in excise duty.
• In November, petrol rates in India opened at Rs.79.43 per litre, while the diesel price stood at Rs.73.83 per litre – the highest price recorded during the month.

• Prices of diesel and petrol dropped towards the end of the month backed by the slight decline in crude oil prices as well as due to the cut in excise duty.
• The global crude oil price moved downwards as the geopolitical tensions between the US and China declined over their trade war.
• On 30 November, both petrol and diesel registered their lowest price for the month when it was sold at Rs.72.96 per litre and 67.81 per litre, respectively.
• Overall, the petrol price in India declined by 8.15%, while diesel rates fell by 8.16% triggered by the fall in crude oil prices in the international market.
• Petrol was priced at Rs.72.61 per litre and diesel at Rs.67.43 per litre on 1 December, respectively. This was also the highest rate recorded during the month for both petrol and diesel.

• While the crude oil was trading around $80 per barrel early October, it declined to trade around $55 per barrel late December prompting fuel rates in India to drop significantly during this month.
• By the end of the month, petrol and diesel prices fell to touch the lowest price when it was dispensed at Rs.68.84 per litre and Rs.62.86 per litre, respectively.
• The petrol price trend in India in December reflected a downward trend of 5.20%, while diesel posted a decline of 6.78% attributed to a significant decline in the crude oil price coupled with the appreciation of the rupee over the US dollar.

Quarterly Fuel Price Trend in India between July and September 2018

	Diesel			Petrol
	July	August	September	July	August	September
Opening date price	Rs.67.38 per litre	Rs.67.97 per litre	Rs.70.42 a litre	Rs.75.55 a litre	Rs.76.31 a litre	Rs.78.68 a litre
Closing date price	Rs.67.86 per litre	Rs.70.26 per litre	Rs.74.79 a litre	Rs.76.35 a litre	Rs.78.57 a litre	Rs.83.49 a litre
Highest price	Rs.68.51 per litre	Rs.70.26 per litre	Rs.74.79 a litre	Rs.76.95 a litre	Rs.78.57 a litre	Rs.83.49 a litre
Lowest price	Rs.67.38 per litre	Rs.67.97 per litre	Rs.70.42 a litre	Rs.75.55 a litre	Rs.76.31 a litre	Rs.78.68 a litre
Trend	Upward	Upward	Upward	Upward	Upward	Upward
% Change	+0.71%	+3.36%	+6.20%	+1.05%	+2.88%	+5.77%

Fuel consumers have been interlinked to market dynamics in India. It means any variations in the oil rate and the INR/USD conversion rate are immediately transferred to fuel users. This system of fuel pricing is called dynamic fuel pricing. The system avoids the big variations in the prices of petrol and diesel unlike before.

Fuel Price Trend in India in July 2018

• Fuel prices will differ in the Indian cities because of the deviation in the sales tax. The sales taxes on a litre of diesel and a litre of petrol were lower compared to Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata in July.
• So, diesel and petrol in Delhi cannot be as expensive as in the remaining three metro cities in India.
• In July, there was a difference of over Rs.7 in the price of a litre of diesel and the price of a litre of petrol in the national capital.
• While the opening date petrol price stood at Rs.75.55 a litre, the opening date diesel price stood at Rs.67.38 a litre in Delhi.
• For petrol, the closing date price stood at Rs.76.35 a litre whereas for diesel the closing date price stood at Rs.70.26 a litre.
• Fuel prices in India are commonly influenced by the external forces, which consist of the global exchange rate and the crude oil overhead per litre.
• Diesel prices in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai have gone up by 0.71% and petrol prices by 1.05% this month.
• Since diesel is a subsidised fuel in India, the way diesel is priced differs from the way petrol is priced.
• No domestic factors have impacted the pricing of diesel and petrol throughout India in July 2018. The trends were recognised exclusively on the basis of the dynamic fuel pricing concept.

Fuel Price Trend in India in August 2018

• Because of dynamic fuel pricing, the changes in fuel prices across the country are the same. If the price of petrol per litre drops by 10 paise in Delhi, petrol price per litre also drops by 10 paise in Mumbai.
• Both diesel and petrol were sold at a constant price in India for many days in the month of August. In the second week, diesel and petrol prices in the domestic market were stable.
• Unlike the first month, the highest fuel rate was noticed on the closing day of the month this month owing to a stability in the prices.
• As fuel rates were increased for a few days in the month, the month ended with a growing trend. While diesel rates in the capital city of India have soared by over 3%, petrol prices have accelerated by 2.88% provoked by the global aspects.
• The sales tax and the central tax, which affect the pricing of diesel and petrol, were not revised in July and August.
• On a litre of petrol, Rs.19.48 excise duty was collected by the Centre. Even the state government have not revised the state tax even though they were facing critics.

Fuel Price Trend in India in September

• Unlike July and August, fuel rates in India kept changing at regular intervals in line with the crude oil cost and the currency conversion ratio.
• As of 1 September, diesel was valued at Rs.67.97 a litre and petrol at Rs.76.31 a litre in Delhi. The closing date petrol price increased by 5.77% and the closing date diesel price by 6.20%
• In all cities in India, the lowest diesel rate was seen on the first day of the month and the highest fuel price on the last day of the month.
• In September, the exchange rate of the USD soared over the indigenous currency by a big margin. Even the cost of oil per barrel in the global market increased by over $4.The whole quarter produced an upward trend across India.
• The Centre was criticised by the common public even the politicians for continuously increasing the price of diesel and petrol.
• At the beginning of September, petrol price in Mumbai almost breached the price range of Rs.90 per litre.
• A nationwide strike was run by the Congress Party to fight against the BJP, which refused to cut the excise duty.
• In the wake of the countrywide strike, the State Governments of West Bengal, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh have cut the VAT in order to make fuel prices affordable.

Quarterly Fuel Price Trend in India Between April and June 2018

Fuel Price Trend in India in April 2018

• On 1st of April 2018, petrol was sold at Rs.73.73 per litre, while diesel was supplied at Rs.64.58 a litre. This price was also the lowest for the month in India.
• Fuel prices in India are revised on a daily basis under the ‘Dynamic Fuel Pricing’ mechanism, where State-run oil companies such as Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum include the previous day’s crude oil rate and the currency exchange value to the Retail Selling Price (RSP) of petrol and diesel.
• By the end of the first week, petrol prices increased by 30 paise per litre, while diesel prices rose by 39 paise a litre. The rise in fuel prices during the first week is attributed to the marginal increase in the global crude oil price.
• In the second and the third week, fuel prices remained steady with a slight incline in rates which was raised in tandem with the crude oil price.
• The highest petrol price in April 2018 stood at Rs.74.67 a litre registered on the 24th of the month, while diesel recorded its highest price in the month at Rs.65.97 per litre - recorded on the 24th of the month.
• While petrol prices grew by 1.22%, diesel prices inclined by 2.09% largely due to the rise in the global crude oil price.

Fuel Price Trend in India in May 2018

• Petrol was sold at Rs.74.63 per litre, while diesel was retailed at Rs.65.93 a litre on 1st of the month. This price was kept unchanged till the 11th of the month - the lowest fuel price of the month.
• Post 11th, fuel companies began revising fuel prices in India in tandem with the crude oil price. With possible US sanctions on Iran and expectations of a potential crunch in supply, the global crude oil rate started to incline further.
• During the second and third week, fuel prices in India inclined significantly as oil prices increased sharply in the global market.
• With oil prices on the increase, petrol and diesel prices rose to touch an all-time high of Rs.78.47 and Rs.69.35 respectively recorded on the 29th of the month.
• During the month, petrol prices in India grew significantly by 5.04% and diesel prices rose by 5.10% largely due to the high cost of crude oil.

Fuel Price Trend in India in June 2018

• With fuel prices touching an all-time high in May 2018, on 1st June 2018 petrol prices fell marginally by 6 paise per litre, while diesel prices declined by 5 paise a litre compared to the previous day. This was also the highest fuel price in the month.
• Fuel prices declined marginally over the course of the first and second week as prices of crude oil fell slightly.
• With fuel prices on the rise across the globe, members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its ally Russia decided to meet on the 22nd to find ways to tackle high crude oil prices.
• During the second and the third week, petrol and diesel prices fell marginally in tandem with the fall in oil prices.
• The OPEC and Russia agreed to increase oil production to arrest the rising fuel price which led to a fall in oil prices in the global market.
• With crude oil rates declining, petrol and diesel registered its lowest price at Rs.75.55 per litre and Rs.67.38 a litre respectively. This price was recorded on the 27th which continued till the end of the month.
• By the end of the month, petrol prices in India reflected a downward trend of 3.55%, while diesel prices declined by 2.69%. The decline in fuel prices during the month is attributed to the increase in output and due to the easing of fears over a shortage of supply.

Factors Impacting Petrol Prices

1. Cost of Raw Petroleum

The Increment in raw petroleum costs in the worldwide market is one critical figure in charge of increment in petrol prices in Indian household market.

2. Increase in Demand

Petrol prices in India have elevated in response to healthy economics of the country and other emerging Asian countries.

3. Misalignment between Demand and Supply

Indian oil organizations confront issue to reach the petroleum demand with deficiency of supply and production from refinery centers. Petrol prices shall vary in case there is a misalignment between supply and demand.

4. Tax

The tax structure for petrol and petroleum products is governed by the Indian government. Oil companies in India will hike fuel prices to recoup losses when there is a jump in tax rate. When the state government increases the VAT on petrol, petrol rates shall increase. If the state government taxes are reduced, petrol rates shall decrease.

Quarterly Fuel Price Trend In India Between January And March 2018

Fuel Price Trend In India In January 2018

• The fuel price in India began with the lowest price on 1 January 2018. While petrol price stood at Rs.69.97 per litre, diesel price stood at Rs.59.76 per litre. This is also the lowest fuel price for the month.
• While fuel prices in the first week of January 2018 remained steady, it slightly increased by nearly a Rupee from the second week onwards.
• The increase in fuel prices in India is attributed to the hike in the crude oil price in the global market.
• The Indian Basket or Indian Oil Basket price increased from $67.50 per barrel on the 10th to $68.02 on the 15th, an increase of 1.76%, which led to the increase in the price of fuel in India.
• Both the petrol and diesel recorded their respective highest price on the last day of the month. While the highest petrol price stood at Rs.72.92 per litre, the highest diesel price stood at Rs.64 per litre.
• Overall, the fuel price in India reflected an upward trend at 4.05% and 6.72% for petrol and diesel respectively. The upward trend in the fuel price in January was largely influenced by the rise in crude oil price as well as a slight decrease in the INR exchange rate over the USD.

Fuel Price Trend In India In February 2018

• With an upward trend in fuel price in January, petrol and diesel prices continued to rise by recording Rs.73.03 and Rs.64.09 for a litre of petrol and diesel respectively on 1 February 2018.
• Fuel prices continued to rise in the first week recording its highest price on the 6th and 7th February. The highest price for a litre of petrol stood at Rs.73.36, while diesel’s highest price stood at Rs.64.20 per litre.
• The increase in the fuel price is attributed to the increased demand for crude oil in the international market.
• Towards the second and third weeks of February, fuel prices, both petrol and diesel, dropped significantly recording its lowest price. While the lowest petrol price stood at Rs.71.49 per litre, the lowest diesel price stood at Rs.62.12 per litre during the last week of February.
• The drop in fuel prices in the last week is influenced by the increase in the exchange rate of INR over the USD. Also, the Indian Basket rate declined from $65.12 per barrel on 26th to $63.99 per barrel on the last day of the month leading to the drop in fuel prices.
• The trend in fuel prices in India during February was downward at 2.15% and 3.15% for petrol and diesel respectively. As mentioned earlier, the downward trend in fuel prices is attributed to the drop in the global crude oil price as well as the Rupee gaining over the Dollar.

Fuel Price Trend In In India In March 2018

• On 1 March 2018, fuel price for a litre of petrol stood at Rs.71.63, while that of diesel stood at Rs.62.39 per litre. Despite a slight increase compared to the previous day, this rate was the lowest fuel price for the month.
• In the first week, the cost of fuel price in India continued to be steady, but with a slight spike in price on the 6th and 7th, nearly 70 paise increase compared to the opening price of the month.
• With a slight dip in price during the second week, fuel prices began to increase in the third and the fourth weeks.
• The incline in fuel price in India is attributed to the increase in the crude oil price, which stood at $62.04 per barrel on the 14th and slowly increased to $66.80 per barrel on the 26th.
• The closing date price for a litre petrol stood at Rs.73.55 and Rs.64.40 for a litre of diesel. This is the highest price for fuel recorded on 31 March 2018.
• Incidentally, the highest fuel price recorded on 31 March 2018 is the also the highest fuel price for the quarter between January and March 2018.
• The fuel price in March reflected an upward trend at 2.69% and 3.34% for petrol and diesel respectively. The upward trend is largely influenced by the rise in the international crude oil price.

Factors Determining Petrol Price at Bunks

1. Seasonal Variations

North American petroleum segment has two as opposed to four seasons: the summer season and the winter season. Extracting fuel will vary in view of the season. By and large, refiners take the benefit of the shift in seasons for maintenance that leads to sluggish fabrication activities. As a result, petro prices at bunks shall be augmented.

2. Weather Conditions

A sea tempest in the Gulf of Mexico that pulverizes oil amenities has prompt outcomes. Less oil shall be extricated if penetrating apparatuses are pulverized. In addition to this, if transportation or refineries are interrupted, there shall be less polished gasoline accessible. In this way, petrol rates are impacted.

3. Increase in Demand

The price of a particular product tends to increase when it is in deficit supply but has more demand. For oil, this is valid across the globe, especially in developing economies like India and China. As a general rule, the higher demand for petrol, the higher shall be petrol prices. The lesser the demand for petrol, the lesser shall be petrol prices.

4. Global Reserves and Production Conditions

The projection with respect to the conditions of polished gasoline surpluses and oil seldom incite dread of a conceivable product shortfall. As polished gasoline and oil are traded on the stock exchange, the slenderest concern leads to raised prices. Simply the dread of not having the desired level of oil results in increased price.

5. Restricted Refining Capabilities

In the course of recent decades, a few refineries in North America have shut because of high running expenses. Any misalignment between refineries and oil fabrication can cause a hike in the price structure of polished gasoline.

6. Debasement of the US Dollar

Refined gasoline and raw petroleum are traded in US dollars. At the point when the US dollar devalues, makers tweak their prices to evade losses.

Dynamic Fuel Pricing or Daily Revision of Fuel Pricing

Indian oil marketing companies used to revise diesel and petrol prices on a fortnightly basis, which means on the first and sixteenth of each month. The retail selling price of diesel and petrol shall be revised on a daily basis in dynamic fuel pricing. The scheme has been brought into action on 16th June 2017. It is in place in five cities of the country, including Udaipur, Visakhapatnam, Chandigarh, Jamshedpur, Puducherry since 1st May, 2017.

Dynamic Fuel Pricing is also called daily revision of Diesel Prices and petrol prices. The move assures that the advantage of even a minute variation in global oil prices may be transmitted to fuel users and dealers. Fuel users shall be mapped to market rates. Revising Diesel Price and petrol prices on a daily basis fosters transparency, encourages the automation drive of dealers, and boosts appropriate stock management practices.

Impact of Dynamic Fuel Pricing in India

The Indian government has permitted oil marketing companies to determine the retail price of fuel based on currency exchange rate and fluctuations in international oil prices. OMCs are owned by states. Hence, they are not permitted to hike fuel prices during the election time since it harms consumers. The government instead permits them to price more even if global oil prices are falling. Revising fuel prices on a daily basis leaves no impact to consumers as global oil prices shall not change much on a daily basis. Fuel prices in India are largely affected if there is a major global event affecting crude oil price.

Countrywide Petrol Price Comparison

India has restricted petroleum surpluses. The country’s oil consumption is mounting at a decent rate as per recent statistics. Other largest oil consumers are Japan, South Korea, Russia, Mexico, Germany, Canada, China. Despite currencies, the factors influencing petrol pricing are more or less the same, but the percentage of allocation will vary from one nation to another.

India is an agricultural-oriented nation and seeks to harness the economy through higher diesel subsidies. Due to which, diesel is priced lower than petrol. This may not be the case with some other economies. Moreover, every country has different importing patterns that will influence Petrol Price . A country with a lower import rate has a lower price charged for both diesel and petrol.

Oil marketing corporations have revised the additional tax remitted towards several state taxes. This has prompted costs of oil-based commodities expanding in states, for example, West Bengal, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Mumbai, Assam. The Irrecoverable Taxes Compensation Scheme of 2002 was needed to be audited to mirror the costs in states where irreversible duties had seen a decay.

INR/USD Exchange Rate

The INR/USD is one of the highly volatile currency pairs traded in the Forex market. The INR is the domestic currency of India whereas the USD is the currency of the US. The USD is considered as the base currency in overseas markets. The INR can be symolised as Rs or IRs whereas the American dollar can be symbolised as $. The Indian currency is clustered into 100 paise. Conversely, the USD is clustered into 100 cents. The exchange rate of INR/USD plays an important role in overseas transactions, including import and export of crude oil. Crude oil should be paid in dollars since it is not a domestic commodity.

An exchange rate is a rate at which the currency of one country is converted into the currency of another currency. It might change on a daily basis with the steadily changing market conditions. Similarly, the INR/USD exchange rate is influenced by many factors. The common influencers include the rate of interest, the rate of inflation, the current account of India and the USA, the terms of trades, speculation, recession, the political stability of India and the USA, etc.

Prediction of USD/INR 2018

Prediction of USD/INR 2019

Crude Oil

Crude oil, also called black gold, is a naturally available raw petroleum derivative made out of hydrocarbon stores in natural underground repositories. It can fluctuate in color to several shades of yellow and black based on its hydrocarbon blend and stays fluid at a temperature and climatic weight. Crude oil, also called raw petroleum, can be turned into usable petroleum derivatives like diesel, gasoline, several categories of petrochemicals.

Transacting in raw petroleum has continuously been immaculate on a global scale though it is delivered by a few corporations. Intermediaries supply up to 80% of worldwide raw petroleum in extensive carriers and a major portion of remaining via underground pipelines. The Middle East retains a bigger margin of surpluses followed by Europe, North America, Eurasia. It is extremely important for business partners such as exporters, subject matter experts (SMEs), intermediaries, manufacturers to wisely handle the element of risk involved while dealing in crude oil.

Crude oil market influencers

• Universal geopolitics
• Weather reports
• Refinery consumption ratio
• OPEC surge
• Speculation in selling and buying
• Consumption and demand pattern for oil in emerging economies

Crude Oil Primary Categories

A few people self-assertively consider oil to be a solitary, indistinctly identical material with no exceptional separation, but this is really not the situation by any means! Undeniably, it has many categories and goes in thickness and constancy, from unstable variability, light heaviness and thin to a greater degree of thickness. There is an enormous degree of shading additionally. Petroleum sector uses references to topographical localities keeping in mind the end goal to unmistakably group raw petroleum. It can be accredited to the fact that oil from various topographical areas shall normally have its own attributes. These oils fluctuate significantly from each other with regards to their consistency, unpredictability, poisonous quality.

1.Light distills consist petroleum ether, jet fuel, petroleum spirit, kerosene, petroleum naphtha, gasoline, heavy virgin naphtha, light virgin naphtha. These can vanish in a day or two and are highly explosive in nature.

2.Middle distills consist light crude marine gas oils, most domestic fuels, diesel fuel oils, grade 1 and 2. This category is reasonably unpredictable and adequately dangerous.

3.Medium oil constitutes a major proportion of raw petroleum available nowadays.

4.Heavy fuel oils consist heavy marine fuels, intermediate, overwhelming unrefined oils, grade 3, 4, 5 and 6 fuel oils. This group can moderately vanish and, however, harmfulness is exceedingly expanded.

Three Important Crude Oil Categories often seen in News

1.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is a premier quality unrefined oil and highly treasured.

2.Brent Blend is a composition of various oil from 15 turfs across the Ninian systems and Scottish Brent cited in the North Sea.

3.Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC Basket) is a composition of seven categories of unrefined oil from the Mexican Isthmus, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria, Saudi Arabia.

Crude Oil Price Determinants

The biggest factor involved in the retail price of gasoline is the cost of unrefined oil that shall vary seasonably and across all parts of the nation. Both demand and supply side factors determine the price of crude oil. Economic growth at a global level significantly impacts demand pattern. Oil prices are responsive to interruptions in the national and transnational surge of unrefined oil.

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) sets a higher fabrication level on its participants to impact oil prices sometimes. The price of gasoline comprises taxes imposed by both state and central governments, refining expenses and profits, selling and distribution expenses. Refining expenses and profits will vary seasonably. The cost price of other elements like ethanol is also included in gasoline prices. Augmented demand in the summer for gasoline leads to higher prices.

Gasoline:

On the basis of octane levels, gasoline is marketed in three categories that include premium, regular, midgrade. A fuel’s octane level alludes to its confrontation to ignition. A higher level octane is said to have less inclined to pre-start and explosion. Premier category of gasoline is more expensive than other grades. Fuel with a higher level of octane is priced more by refineries. The retail price of gasoline involves three important elements, which are taxes, cost of unrefined oil, refining expenses, selling and distribution expenses. All these elements are included in retail prices in addition to the losses and profits of distributors, refiners, sellers, retail store proprietors.

Refined Petroleum Product Categories

Refined petroleum products are extracted from crude oil via processes like proportional purification and catalytic cracking. The physical and chemical features of these products will vary according to the categories of crude oil and successive refining processes.

1.Gasoline is a lightweight petroleum product that surges easily and feasts immediately. It may vanish fully under moderate situations within a few hours.

2.Kerosene is also a lightweight petroleum product that surges easily, feasts instantly, and vanishes quickly.

3.No.2 fuel oil, a lightweight petroleum product, surges easily and feasts instantly.

4.No.4 fuel oil, a medium-weight petroleum product, surges easily and feats instantly.

5.No.5 fuel oil is a medium-weight to heavyweight petroleum product with reasonable flash point and a low instability.

6.No.6 fuel oil is a heavyweight petroleum product that is complicated to pump and necessitates preheating for consumption.

7.Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) may be utilised in lieu of petrol.

8.Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is a composition of butane and propone.

Technology Breakthrough in Oil and Gas

Over the last decade, oil and natural gas industry has experienced tremendous technology breakthrough in projecting, scouting, and fabricating oil and gas. Technology, which is in use nowadays, covers everything from supercomputers to nanotechnology. Seismic imaging enables drillers to reach gas and oil caught miles undersea and underground. A few technologies that can completely streamline the business of oil and gas are the digital oilfield, 4D seismic technology, the new normal. The digital outfield is a platform that tracks, assesses, and manages all the information sourcing from all across the oilfield. The new normal is used to identify the quantum of natural gas and oil. Petroleum geophysicists and geologists use 4D seismic technology to plot and analyse latent hydrocarbon surpluses. Oil production companies have begun investing to gain the best from these technologies.

Global Oil Projections

A recent study on global oil prices has revealed that there is a considerable amount of uncertainty. The range in which global oil prices either increase or decrease shall be reasonably thicker. There has been a stable, consistent rise from the stance of Indian petrol rates.

Price variations in petrol and diesel affect a majority of Indian population and are vastly debated. Both petrol and diesel are considered strategic commodities that play a significant role in the overall socio-economic growth of a nation. These commodities should be optimally utilised to address uncertainties related to supply that in turn impacts the functioning of any economy.

*Disclaimer: BankBazaar makes no guarantee or warranty on the accuracy of the data provided on this page, the prevailing prices are susceptible to change and provided on an as-is basis. We accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of the data contained on this website.